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Do structural transformation and ICT development reduce the ecological footprints of nations?

  • 1 hour ago
  • 2 min read

As nations face the dual challenge of economic growth and environmental preservation, a new study by Dr. Nguyen Phuc Canh, HAPRI's Senior Research Associate, together with Dr. Nadia Doytch (CUNY-Brooklyn College, USA) and Dr. Ayesha Ashraf (Women University, Pakistan), investigates whether structural transformation and ICT development can reduce the ecological footprints of nations.


The ecological footprint is one of the most widely used indicators for ecosystem changes. Over the past two decades, ecological footprints have displayed different patterns among different country income groups: high levels persist in high-income countries, while high growth rates persist in middle-income countries. At the same time, the digitalization of society and the economy has been reshaping industries through ICT development. Despite the growing body of research, the literature lacks a comprehensive investigation incorporating the effects of both structural transformation and ICT spread on the living environment.


Using the "Stochastic Impact by Regression on Population, Affluence and Technology (STIRPAT) model" as a theoretical framework and a dynamic panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) methodology, the study analyzes data from 104 countries over the period 2002–2019, stratified by income levels.


The main results reveal several important dynamics:

  • Short-run vs. Long-run Internet Effects: While Internet use tends to harm the environment in the short run, its long-run effect is environment-preserving, suggesting that digital adoption requires time to yield ecological benefits

  • Structural Transformation Matters: The transition out of agriculture into either industry or services can harm the environment in the long run. Transformation from industry to services appears environment-preserving only in upper-middle-income countries

  • ICT as a Mitigating Force: The interaction between the Internet and structural change factors reveals a mitigating effect of Internet use on the environmentally harmful effects of transitioning out of agriculture into the modern economy

  • Income-Group Variation: The transformation from industry to services harms the environment through consumption in high-income economies, while its effects differ across income groups for production footprints


The study points to the need for a carefully designed ICT expansion policy to allow for benefiting from the advantages of digitalization in the modern way of life without threatening or harming the living nature. As countries undergo structural transformation, policymakers should integrate digital strategies that leverage the environment-preserving potential of ICT development.

Internet usage and EFs
Internet usage and EFs

Keywords:

  • Structural Transformation

  • ICT

  • Agriculture

  • Industry

  • Services

  • Ecological Footprints



Citation:

Doytch, N., Nguyen, C.P., & Ashraf, A. (2025). Do structural transformation and ICT development reduce the ecological footprints of nations? Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 28, 100984. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indic.2025.100984

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