Demographic Aging, Task Allocation, and Foreign Labor Demand
- 2 days ago
- 4 min read
A HAPRI seminar
HAPRI will host a seminar with Professor Nguyen Quoc Hung, who will present "Demographic Aging, Task Allocation, and Foreign Labor Demand." It takes place on Monday 7 September 2026, from 15:00 to 17:00 (GMT+7), in Room B1-203, Building B, 279 Nguyen Tri Phuong, Ward 5, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City.
The seminar considers how changes in the age composition of a domestic workforce shape demand for foreign labor. It brings a task-based perspective to a question that matters wherever demographic change alters the composition of the workforce.
Summary
The paper asks how demographic shifts in the composition of the domestic workforce affect demand for foreign labor. Its task-based model has firms allocate younger and experienced domestic workers between production and managerial tasks. In this framework, demand for foreign labor depends on the relative sizes of the two cohorts and on the intensity with which different tasks use their labor.
The model draws a careful distinction between the two groups. Where production tasks are more intensive in younger workers, foreign labor substitutes for younger workers. At the same time, experienced workers are required to sustain organisational capacity. The implication is that a decline in younger workers does not, by itself, describe the full demographic setting in which firms demand foreign labor. The supply of experienced workers also matters.
The empirical evidence comes from Japanese prefectural panel data, alongside complementary instrumental variable evidence. The study finds that prefectures with sharper declines in younger workers and a more stable supply of experienced workers receive larger inflows of foreign labor. Its estimates also imply a demographic break-even condition: foreign labor demand weakens when the contraction in experienced workers becomes sufficiently large relative to the decline in younger workers. In plain language, the model identifies a point at which a loss of experienced workers can limit the organisational capacity needed to support foreign labor demand.
Japan's foreign workforce: growth and a changing mix
Foreign employment in Japan rose from 649.9 thousand in 2010 to 1,658.8 thousand in 2019, a 2.6-fold rise. The workforce grew and its composition shifted at the same time. On levels implied by the reported shares and totals, none of the four residence-status categories declined.
The four residence statuses
The category names are the paper's own. The definitions below follow the Immigration Services Agency (ISA), Ministry of Justice, Japan, for the same Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) foreign-employment statistic the paper uses:
Professional and technical: Work-purpose statuses in professional and technical fields, such as Engineer, Specialist in Humanities and International Services, and Specified Skilled Worker.
Technical intern training: A skill-transfer programme aimed at international cooperation. Since 2010 trainees hold this status under an employment relationship from their first year in Japan.
Student work permission: Paid work permitted alongside another purpose of stay, mainly international students. Capped so it does not interfere with that purpose, generally 28 hours a week.
Status-based residence: Permanent residents, spouses and children of Japanese nationals, and long-term residents. No restriction on the work performed or on moving between employers.
Why the question is of interest to a Vietnamese audience
Vietnam sends a large number of workers to Japan, while Vietnam is itself aging. These circumstances make the question of how demographic change, task allocation, and foreign labor demand interact relevant to a Vietnamese audience.
The evidence here is Japanese, and the paper makes no claim about Vietnam. What carries across is the question and the mechanism behind it: how the age structure of a country's own workforce changes what its employers look for abroad. Vietnam meets that question from both directions at once, as a country that sends workers to Japan and as one whose own workforce is ageing.
About the presenter
Professor Nguyen Quoc Hung is in the School of International Politics, Economics and Communication (SIPEC), Department of International Economics, at Aoyama Gakuin University. His research fields are economic policy and economic theory. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of British Columbia, an MA in Economics from The University of Tokyo, and a BA from the Faculty of Economics at Kobe University.
Professor Nguyen Quoc Hung previously presented at HAPRI in February 2025, on "Population Graying, Technological Changes, and Their Economic Implications". That seminar concerned related, but distinct, work from the paper presented here.
Chatham House Rule
This seminar is held under the Chatham House Rule: participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of any participant may be revealed. The session is not recorded. Photographs may be taken during the event.
Practical details
Date: Monday 7 September 2026
Time: 15:00 to 17:00 (GMT+7)
Venue: Room B1-203, Building B, 279 Nguyen Tri Phuong, Ward 5, District 10, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Event page: HAPRI event page
No registration is required.
