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Vietnam Overtakes Indonesia in GDP per Capita in 2026

12 hours ago
3 min read
Chart of GDP per capita for Vietnam and Indonesia, 2016-2030, IMF October 2026 forecast: Vietnam reaches USD 5,259 in 2026, overtaking Indonesia at USD 5,153
GDP per capita (current USD), Vietnam and Indonesia, 2016-2030. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026.

Part 1 of 5 in the Vietnam Economy in Data series: the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026.


Summary

In every year of the series since 2016, Indonesia's GDP per capita has been higher than Vietnam's. In its October 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO), the IMF projects that the order reverses in 2026: Vietnam reaches USD 5,259 per person and Indonesia USD 5,153.


Key figures

  • 2026 (IMF forecast): Vietnam USD 5,259, Indonesia USD 5,153, a gap of +USD 106.

  • 2025 (estimate): Vietnam USD 4,829, Indonesia USD 5,078, a gap of -USD 249.

  • 2016 (historical): Vietnam USD 2,720, Indonesia USD 3,605, a gap of -USD 885.

  • 2030 (IMF forecast): Vietnam USD 7,105, Indonesia USD 6,944.


A narrowing gap, then a reversal

The gap between the two economies narrowed overall over 2016-2025, from USD 885 to USD 249 (though it widened in some years, such as 2017 and 2021-2022), and changes sign in 2026. In the IMF's forecasts to 2030, Vietnam stays ahead in every year, by between USD 80 (2028) and USD 161 (2030). These are small margins, so the order remains sensitive to revisions in coming WEO releases.


On the same data, Vietnam's GDP per capita is projected to rise 35.1% over 2026-2030, the fastest of the 11 ASEAN economies. Indonesia is second at 34.8%.


Table of GDP per capita for Vietnam and Indonesia by year, 2016-2030, with the gap between them
Year-by-year table. The gap is computed from unrounded values, then rounded to the nearest dollar. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026.

Analysis: what lies behind the reversal

In the same October 2026 WEO, Vietnam's economy is projected to grow 8.4% in real terms in 2026, against 5.1% for Indonesia. That real growth gap is the most visible factor associated with Vietnam closing and then overtaking the gap. GDP per capita in US dollars also depends on prices and exchange rates, however, and the IMF report does not separate the contribution of each.


At USD 5,259 in 2026, Vietnam moves from sixth to fifth of the 11 ASEAN economies, behind Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand. The gap to Thailand remains large: USD 3,113 in 2026 and USD 2,294 in 2030 on the forecasts. Within the IMF's forecast horizon to 2030, Vietnam does not catch up with Thailand.


The wider context: the October 2026 WEO describes a "split" global economy, in which economies plugged into the technology value chain are holding up, while energy importers with little connection to that chain face the hardest conditions. In the IMF's analysis of value-added spillovers from Korea's and Taiwan Province of China's technology exports, Vietnam is among the manufacturing and services exporters that gain value added through that chain. The April 2026 WEO also noted that US imports from Vietnam rose as imports from China dropped sharply.


Reading the numbers correctly

GDP per capita is total output divided by population. It is not the income of any individual, and it does not reflect the size of an economy: in 2026 Indonesia's total GDP is still nearly three times Vietnam's. The figures are in current US dollars, so they also move with exchange rates.


Sources and data status


Posts in this series

  • Part 1 (10 Nov 2026): Vietnam Overtakes Indonesia in GDP per Capita in 2026 (this post).

  • Part 2 (13 Nov 2026): Vietnam's Current-Account Surplus Nearly Disappears in 2026.

  • Part 3 (17 Nov 2026): IMF Raises Vietnam's 2026 Growth Forecast Twice.

  • Part 4 (20 Nov 2026): Growth 8.4%, Inflation 4.7%: The IMF's 2026 Outlook for Vietnam.

  • Part 5 (24 Nov 2026): ASEAN Growth Ranking 2026: Vietnam Leads.

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