Vietnam's Child Penalty Is Larger Where Natural Disasters Have Greater Impact
A new HAPRI study, co-authored by Nguyen Doan, Canh Phuc Nguyen (HAPRI Senior Research Associate) and Thanh Dinh Su, finds that the motherhood employment penalty in Vietnam is larger in provinces that have experienced greater impact from natural disasters. The study also finds that better governance, public administration and digital infrastructure are associated with a smaller penalty.
Context
The study looks at the motherhood employment penalty, which the authors also call the child penalty, measured through changes in employment around the birth of a first child.
It asks how exposure to natural disasters explains the magnitude of that penalty across Vietnam's provinces.
Methods
The authors use a pseudo-event study design to estimate changes in employment around the birth of the first child, drawing on Vietnam's population census data from 1989 to 2019. They combine these estimates with province-level disaster records from EM-DAT and test the relationship with cross-sectional, first-difference and instrumental variable (IV) estimates at the provincial level. Disaster exposure is measured by the number of people affected, homelessness, deaths and injuries.
Key findings
The motherhood employment penalty is larger in provinces that have experienced greater impact from disasters.
Exposure to disasters — measured by the number of people affected, homelessness, deaths and injuries — is a significant predictor of the child penalty.
Disaster exposure is positively associated with the child penalty: a 1% increase corresponds to a 0.003–0.013 percentage point greater child penalty on average in ordinary least squares and first-difference estimates, and a 0.014–0.041 percentage point greater child penalty in IV estimates.
Better governance, public administration and digital infrastructure contribute to reducing the employment penalty.
Keywords:
Vietnam
Natural Disasters
Child Penalty
Motherhood Employment Penalty
Census
Link:
Citation:
Doan, N., Nguyen, C. P., & Su, T. D. (2026). Natural Disasters and Employment in Parenthood: Evidence From Vietnam. Journal of International Development.
