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Working Paper

N/A

HAPRI Working Paper

HAPRI Working Paper

Vietnam's Economic Growth Forecast 2026

Thang T. Vo, Bich-Hien T. Nguyen, Nhung T. K. Truong

DOI:
​Keywords:

Vietnam, Economic Growth Forecast, Inflation, Dynamic Model Averaging, Macroeconomic Policy, Uncertainty

Võ Tất Thắng

Thắng Võ-Tất

Nguyễn Thị Bích Hiền

Hiền Nguyễn-Thị-Bích

Trương Thị Kiều Nhung

Nhung Trương-Thị-Kiều

Thang T. Vo, Bich-Hien T. Nguyen, Nhung T. K. Truong (2026), "Vietnam's Economic Growth Forecast 2026", HAPRI Working Paper, DOI: doi.org/10.13140/rg.2.2.29808.83206

Abstract

This report assesses Vietnam's economic performance in 2025 and develops forecasts for 2026 using the Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) method. In 2025, Vietnam's economy achieved growth of 8.02%, exceeding both its target and the forecasts of international organisations. Inflation was well controlled at 3.31%. The labour market remained stable and FDI rose strongly, particularly into high-technology sectors. For 2026, GDP growth is forecast at 6.8%, while inflation is expected to remain low at 3.54%. The outlook is affected by global trade policy uncertainty but supported by a wave of high-technology investment. The report sets out policy recommendations on macroeconomic management, trade, human resource development and technology.

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