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Vietnam's Current-Account Surplus Nearly Disappears in 2026

1 day ago
3 min read
Chart of Vietnam's current-account balance as a share of GDP, 2016-2030: from +6.7% in 2025 to +0.3% in 2026 on the IMF forecast
Vietnam's current-account balance, % of GDP, 2016-2030. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026.

Part 2 of 5 in the Vietnam Economy in Data series: the IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026.


Summary

The IMF projects a sharp fall in Vietnam's current-account surplus, from 6.7% of GDP in 2025 to just 0.3% in 2026, a drop of 6.4 percentage points in a single year. The IMF also projects a recovery to 3.4% of GDP in 2027.


Key figures

  • 2025 (estimate): a surplus of 6.7% of GDP, the highest of 2016-2025.

  • 2026 (IMF forecast): a surplus of 0.3% of GDP, down 6.4 percentage points.

  • 2027 (IMF forecast): a surplus of 3.4% of GDP.

  • 2028-2030 (IMF forecast): surpluses of 2.7%, 1.8% and 1.0% of GDP.


A rare swing in the series

In the ten years 2016-2025, Vietnam's current account was in deficit only twice: in 2017 (-0.6% of GDP) and 2021 (-2.2% of GDP). Over 2023-2025 the surplus held at around 6.4-6.7% of GDP. The 6.4-point fall projected for 2026 is close to the largest drop in the series, in 2021 (-6.6 points).


Table of Vietnam's current-account balance as a share of GDP by year, 2016-2030, with the change from the previous year
Year-by-year table. The change column is the difference from the previous year, computed from unrounded values and rounded to one decimal place. Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2026.

Analysis: how the IMF's view changed

A surplus of 0.3% of GDP is a large revision within 2026 itself. In the April 2026 WEO, the IMF projected Vietnam's 2026 current-account surplus at 5.3% of GDP; by the October 2026 WEO it was 0.3%, a cut of 5.0 percentage points in six months.


Vietnam is not alone. In the October 2026 WEO's Asia table, the 2026 current-account balance of several Southeast Asian economies also weakens from 2025: Thailand from a surplus of 3.0% to a deficit of 1.2% of GDP, Indonesia from -0.1% to -1.6%, and the Philippines from -3.3% to -4.8%. The ASEAN-5 average falls from 3.0% to 1.8% of GDP. By contrast, the large technology exporters see their surpluses rise: Korea from 6.5% to 18.8% of GDP, and Taiwan Province of China from 20.0% to 22.0%.


The report does not explain Vietnam's case specifically. At the global level, the IMF describes the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushing up energy prices, leaving energy importers with "higher import bills" and exchange rate pressures. How much of Vietnam's decline that mechanism explains needs testing against detailed balance-of-payments data for each component.


Reading the numbers correctly

These are forecasts, not outcomes. The current account covers goods, services, primary income and current transfers, not just merchandise trade, so a large goods trade surplus can coexist with a small current-account balance.


Sources and data status


Posts in this series

  • Part 1 (10 Nov 2026): Vietnam Overtakes Indonesia in GDP per Capita in 2026

  • Part 2 (13 Nov 2026): Vietnam's Current-Account Surplus Nearly Disappears in 2026 (this post).

  • Part 3 (17 Nov 2026): IMF Raises Vietnam's 2026 Growth Forecast Twice.

  • Part 4 (20 Nov 2026): Growth 8.4%, Inflation 4.7%: The IMF's 2026 Outlook for Vietnam.

  • Part 5 (24 Nov 2026): ASEAN Growth Ranking 2026: Vietnam Leads.

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